PENGARUH HERDING DAN OVERCONFIDENCE TERHADAP KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI DENGAN PERAN RISK PERCEPTION SEBAGAI PEMEDIASI

Abstract

Peningkatan jumlah investor muda di pasar modal Indonesia tidak selalu diiringi oleh kemampuan pengambilan keputusan investasi yang rasional karena faktor psikologis masih memengaruhi proses tersebut. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh herding dan overconfidence terhadap keputusan investasi dengan risk perception sebagai pemediasi, mengacu pada behavioral finance dan prospect theory. Sampel penelitian terdiri atas 150 investor muda generasi Z dan milenial di Kota Denpasar yang dipilih melalui purposive sampling. Data dikumpulkan melalui kuesioner berskala semantic differential dan dianalisis menggunakan Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa herding dan overconfidence berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap keputusan investasi, sedangkan keduanya berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap risk perception. Risk perception berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap keputusan investasi serta terbukti memediasi pengaruh herding dan overconfidence terhadap keputusan investasi, masing masing dengan kategori mediasi sedang dan lemah. Temuan ini memperkuat behavioral finance dan prospect theory serta memberikan implikasi praktis bagi emiten, perusahaan sekuritas, dan Bursa Efek Indonesia dalam meningkatkan transparansi informasi dan edukasi manajemen risiko bagi investor muda.

The growing number of young investors in the Indonesian capital market has not always been matched by rational investment decision making, as psychological factors continue to influence the process. This study aims to examine the effects of herding and overconfidence on investment decisions, with risk perception acting as a mediating variable, drawing on behavioral finance and prospect theory. The sample consisted of 150 young investors from Generation Z and the millennial generation in Denpasar City. Data were collected through a questionnaire using a semantic differential scale and analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling. The results show that herding and overconfidence have a positive and significant effect on investment decisions, while both have a negative and significant effect on risk perception. Risk perception has a negative and significant effect on investment decisions and is proven to mediate the effect of herding and overconfidence on investment decisions, with moderate and weak mediation categories respectively. These findings reinforce behavioral finance and prospect theory and provide practical implications for issuers, securities companies, and the Indonesia Stock Exchange in improving information transparency and risk management education for young investors.