Towards Equity: Projecting and Converging the Human Development Index in Indonesia

Abstract

Human development has become an imperative for Indonesia amid the ongoing
demographic bonus. However, various challenges persist in the realm of human
development in the country, as evidenced by disparities in Human Development Index
(HDI) achievements. This research aims to project Indonesia's HDI for the years 2023, 2024,
2035, and the "Golden Indonesia" period in 2045 to discern the developmental trajectory of
HDI and its disparities. Additionally, it seeks to measure the convergence of Indonesia's HDI
to attain equitable development. The results of the trend projection estimations indicate that
Indonesia's HDI is projected to be 73.74 in 2023 and 74.28 in 2024, which is anticipated to fall
below the target set by the government, aiming for an HDI of 75.54 in 2024. Indonesia's HDI
is projected to reach 80.22 in 2035 and 85.62 in 2045, categorizing it as 'Very High,' aligning
with the vision for the Golden Indonesia in 2045. Furthermore, conditional convergence
analysis results indicate that it would take 75 years for provinces with lower HDI to catch up
with those with higher HDI, achieving zero inequality. Based on the estimation results, it is
found that Per Capita Spending on Educational Functions is a significant variable
influencing HDI convergence.