EKSPEKTASI HETEROGEN DAN SENTIMEN PASAR DALAM PENELITIAN STABILITAS KEUANGAN:SINTESIS BIBLIOMETRIK TREN GLOBAL

Penulis

  • Shanti Pramelia Universitas Widyatama image/svg+xml
  • Achmad Humam Universitas Widyatama

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24843/EJMUNUD.2026.v15.i7.p07

Kata Kunci:

analisis sentiment; ekspektasi heterogen; kecerdasan buatan (AI); sentimen pasar; stabilitas keuangan

Abstrak

Krisis keuangan yang berulang menunjukkan bahwa model tradisional masih belum memadai untuk deteksi dini ketidakstabilan sistemik. Studi ini menyajikan sintesis bibliometrik tren penelitian global tentang ekspektasi heterogen, sentimen pasar, dan stabilitas keuangan selama tahun 2010–2026. Tidak seperti studi sebelumnya yang meneliti konsep-konsep ini secara terpisah, penelitian ini mengintegrasikan ketiganya dalam kerangka bibliometrik yang terpadu. Metode bibliometrik diterapkan pada 212 dokumen yang diindeks Scopus menggunakan Biblioshiny dan VOSviewer. Analisis tersebut mengungkapkan tingkat pertumbuhan tahunan sebesar 21,31 persen, dengan kontribusi terbesar dari China. Analisis co-occurrence mengidentifikasi tujuh klaster tematik: keuangan perilaku, risiko sistemik, analisis sentimen berbasis AI, pembelajaran mesin, peramalan volatilitas, penularan krisis, dan perilaku pasar negara berkembang. Klaster-klaster ini mendukung proposisi bahwa heterogenitas ekspektasi memperkuat dampak sentimen terhadap stabilitas keuangan. Sebuah kesenjangan penelitian utama telah diidentifikasi: belum ada studi empiris yang menguji metrik sentimen berbasis AI di pasar negara berkembang. Implikasi dari penelitian ini adalah bahwa OJK dan Bank Indonesia perlu mempertimbangkan integrasi indikator sentimen digital dalam kerangka pemantauan risiko sistemik mereka, guna memperkuat ketahanan pasar keuangan nasional.

 

Recurring financial crises reveal that traditional models remain insufficient for early detection of systemic instability. This study presents a bibliometric synthesis of global research trends on heterogeneous expectations, market sentiment, and financial stability during 2010–2026. Unlike prior studies examining these concepts separately, this research integrates all three within a unified bibliometric framework. A bibliometric method was applied to 212 Scopus-indexed documents using Biblioshiny and VOSviewer. The analysis reveals an annual growth rate of 21.31 percent, with the largest contribution from China. Co-occurrence analysis identifies seven thematic clusters: behavioral finance, systemic risk, AI-based sentiment analysis, machine learning, volatility forecasting, crisis contagion, and emerging market behavior. These clusters support the proposition that expectation heterogeneity amplifies the impact of sentiment on financial stability. A key research gap is identified: no empirical study has tested AI-based sentiment metrics in emerging markets. The implication of this research is that OJK and Bank Indonesia should consider integrating digital sentiment indicators into their systemic risk monitoring framework to strengthen the resilience of the national financial market.

Referensi

Alvi, A. A., & Wiagustini, N. L. P. (2026). Reaksi pasar modal terhadap pengumuman peluncuran badan pengelola investasi Danantara Indonesia pada perusahaan yang terdaftar di indeks saham LQ45. E-Jurnal Manajemen, 15(4). https://doi.org/10.24843/EJMUUD.2026.v15.i4.p01

Bai, S., Jung, J., & Li, S. (2024). The Spillover Effects of Market Sentiments on Global Stock Market Volatility: A Multi-Country GJR-GARCH-MIDAS Approach. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 17(12). https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17120569

Bansal, N., & Stivers, C. (2025). Predicting the equity premium with a high-threshold risk level and the price of risk. Financial Management, 54(1), 123–145. https://doi.org/10.1111/fima.12474

Ben Yaala, S., & Henchiri, J. E. (2025). Googling and ARMS sentiment across economic phases and horizons: insights into Brazilian crises. Revista de Gestao, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1108/REGE-02-2025-0035

Bodilsen, S. T., & Lunde, A. (2025). Exploiting News Analytics for Volatility Forecasting. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 40(1), 18–36. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3095

Bonato, M., Cepni, O., Gupta, R., & Pierdzioch, C. (2024). Business applications and state-level stock market realized volatility: A forecasting experiment. Journal of Forecasting, 43(2), 456–472. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3042

Chang, M.-S., Huang, P., Zhang, L., & Jiang, L. (2025). The Asymmetric Effect of Market Uncertainty on Safe havens, Inverted Asymmetry and Contagion During COVID-19 Periods. SAGE Open, 15(3). https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440251378567

Cristescu, M. P., Nerisanu, R. A., Mara, D. A., & Oprea, S.-V. (2022). Using Market News Sentiment Analysis for Stock Market Prediction. Mathematics, 10(22). https://doi.org/10.3390/math10224255

Denkowska, A., & Wanat, S. (2020). A tail dependence-based MST and their topological indicators in modeling systemic risk in the European insurance sector. Risks, 8(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/risks8020039

Desliniati, N., Kesuma, W., & Safitri, D. I. (2025). Dividend-Timing Strategy and Market Performance: Evidence From Indonesian Listed Companies. E-Jurnal Akuntansi, 35(12). https://doi.org/10.24843/EJA.2025.v35.i12.p01

Díaz, F., Henríquez, P. A., & Winkelried, D. (2022). Stock market volatility and the COVID-19 reproductive number. Research in International Business and Finance, 59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101517

Donthu, N., Kumar, S., Mukherjee, D., Pandey, N., & Lim, W. M. (2021). How to conduct a bibliometric analysis: An overview and guidelines. Journal of Business Research, 133, 285–296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.04.070

Fang, G., & Zhou, X. (2024). Web Semantic Analysis of Investor Sentiment, Short Trading, and Stock Market Volatility. International Journal on Semantic Web and Information Systems, 20(1). https://doi.org/10.4018/IJSWIS.353903

Fang, J., Gozgor, G., Lau, C.-K. M., & Lu, Z. (2020). The impact of Baidu Index sentiment on the volatility of China’s stock markets. Finance Research Letters, 32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2019.01.011

Farkhondeh Rouz, O., Sioofy Khoojine, A., & Xiao, L. (2025). Systemic risk spillover dynamics and causality structures in composite stress networks. Journal of Physics: Complexity, 6(4). https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/ae0852

Ferreira, T. S. V, Machado, M. A. V, & Silva, P. Z. P. (2021). Asymmetric impact of investor sentiment on brazilian stock market volatility. Revista de Administracao Mackenzie, 22(4). https://doi.org/10.1590/1678-6971/ERAMF210208

He, G., Zhu, S., & Gu, H. (2020). The Nonlinear Relationship between Investor Sentiment, Stock Return, and Volatility. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/5454625

Herwartz, H., & Xu, F. (2022). Structural transmissions among investor attention, stock market volatility and trading volumes. European Financial Management, 28(1), 260–279. https://doi.org/10.1111/eufm.12315

Hsu, Y.-L., & Tang, L. (2022). Effects of investor sentiment and country governance on unexpected conditional volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from global stock markets. International Review of Financial Analysis, 82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102186

Hu, J., Sui, Y., & Ma, F. (2021). The Measurement Method of Investor Sentiment and Its Relationship with Stock Market. Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6672677

Indrayanti, N. K. R., & Suryantini, N. P. S. (2026). Determinan yang memengaruhi pengambilan keputusan investasi reksa dana pada aplikasi Bibit. E-Jurnal Manajemen, 15(3). https://doi.org/10.24843/EJMUNUD.2026.v15.i3.p01

Jiang, B., Zhu, H., Zhang, J., Yan, C., & Shen, R. (2021). Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Frontiers in Psychology, 12. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.708537

Khan, W., Ghazanfar, M. A., Javed, A., Khan, F. U., Shah, Y. A., & Ali, S. (2024). Stock Market Prediction using LSTM Model on the News and Social Media Data. VFAST Transactions on Software Engineering, 12(4), 117–133. https://doi.org/10.21015/vtse.v12i4.1949

Li, K., & Jiang, X. (2024). China’s Stock Market under COVID-19: From the Perspective of Behavioral Finance. International Journal of Financial Studies, 12(3). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs12030070

Li, X., Liang, C., & Ma, F. (2025). Forecasting stock market volatility with a large number of predictors: New evidence from the MS-MIDAS-LASSO model. Annals of Operations Research, 352(3), 613–652. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-022-04716-1

Long, Y., & Rai, A. (2025). Decoding Digital Risk From Corporate Disclosure: A Neural Network Approach. ACM Transactions on Management Information Systems, 16(3). https://doi.org/10.1145/3728365

Mirashk, H., Albadvi, A., Kargari, M., Rastegar, M. A., & Talebi, M. (2025). Design Science Research: A Practical Methodology for Enhancing Qualitative Liquidity Risk Management. Electronic Journal of Business Research Methods, 23(1), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.34190/ejbrm.23.1.3544

Moreno Bernal, Á. I., & Pedraz, C. G. (2024). Sentiment analysis of the Spanish financial stability Report. International Review of Economics and Finance, 89, 913–939. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2023.10.037

Moreno Sandoval, L. G., Pantoja Rojas, L. M., Pomares-Quimbaya, A., & Orozco, L. A. (2023). Computational Linguistic and SNA to Classify and Prevent Systemic Risk in the Colombian Banking Industry. International Journal of E-Business Research, 19(1). https://doi.org/10.4018/IJEBR.323198

Naidoo, T., Moores-Pitt, P., Muzindutsi, P.-F., & O Isah, K. (2025). Analysing investor sentiment and stock market volatility of the JSE size-based indices: a GARCH-MIDAS approach. Risk Management, 27(3). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41283-025-00165-9

Nica, I., Georgescu, I., Delcea, C., & Chiriță, N. (2023). Toward Sustainable Development: Assessing the Effects of Financial Contagion on Human Well-Being in Romania. Risks, 11(11). https://doi.org/10.3390/risks11110204

Oliveira, M. A., & Santos, C. (2022). UNVEILING TRADING PATTERNS: ITRAXX EUROPE FINANCIALS FROM THE GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS TO ECB MONETARY EASING. Banks and Bank Systems, 17(3), 188–200. https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.17(3).2022.16

Ooi, K. L., & Candra, S. (2025). Machine Learning vs. Human Investors: Analyzing Adaptive Herding Behavior in U.S. Stocks vs. Shariah-Compliant Stocks in Malaysia and Indonesia. Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business, 27(3), 297–319. https://doi.org/10.22146/gamaijb.110602

Page, M. J., McKenzie, J. E., Bossuyt, P. M., Boutron, I., Hoffmann, T. C., Mulrow, C. D., Shamseer, L., Tetzlaff, J. M., Akl, E. A., Brennan, S. E., Chou, R., Glanville, J., Grimshaw, J. M., Hróbjartsson, A., Lalu, M. M., Li, T., Loder, E. W., Mayo-Wilson, E., McDonald, S., … Moher, D. (2021). The PRISMA 2020 statement: An updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews. BMJ, 372, n71. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n71

Pangestu, A. D., & Saraswati, E. (2026). Evaluating Bali’s Financial Performance: Pre, During, and Post-Covid-19. E-Jurnal Akuntansi, 36(2), 497–510. https://doi.org/10.24843/EJA.2026.v36.i02.p18

Pilková, A., Munk, M., & Kelebercová, L. (2025). Decoding corporate communication strategies: Analysing mandatory published information under Pillar 3 across turbulent periods with unsupervised machine learning. PLOS ONE, 20(7 July). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0328841

Pramelia, S., & Buchory, H. A. (2025). Consumer Confidence in Mediating Fiscal and Monetary Policy Effects on Indonesia’s Markets. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Kesatuan, 13(4), 2349–2360. https://doi.org/10.37641/jimkes.v13i4.3482

Qi, X.-Z., Ning, Z., & Qin, M. (2022). Economic policy uncertainty, investor sentiment and financial stability—an empirical study based on the time varying parameter-vector autoregression model. Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, 17(3), 779–799. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11403-021-00342-5

Raza, S., Baiqing, S., Soltani, H., & Ben-Salha, O. (2025). Investor Attention, Market Dynamics, and Behavioral Insights: A Study Using Google Search Volume. Systems, 13(4). https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13040252

Stander, Y. S. (2024). A News Sentiment Index to Inform International Financial Reporting Standard 9 Impairments. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 17(7). https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17070282

Tiansyah, A., & Rahmawati, I. (2025). Studi evaluatif atas kinerja keuangan perusahaan asuransi PT Lippo General Insurance Tbk dengan pendekatan early warning system. E-Jurnal Manajemen, 14(8). https://doi.org/10.24843/EJMUUD.2025.v14.i8.p04

van Eyden, R., Gupta, R., Nielsen, J., & Bouri, E. (2023). Investor sentiment and multi-scale positive and negative stock market bubbles in a panel of G7 countries. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2023.100804

Wu, B., Wang, H., Xie, B., & Xie, Z. (2024). Source tracing and contagion measurement of carbon emission trading price fluctuation in China from the perspective of major emergencies. PLOS ONE, 19(3 March). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0298811

Xu, S., Zhang, J., & Shen, R. (2022). Uncertainty, Search Engine Data, and Stock Market Returns During a Pandemic. Frontiers in Public Health, 10. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.884324

Zhu, C. (2025). Asymmetric Spillover Effects Between Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Capital Flows and Stock Market Volatility: A Dynamic Analysis Based on Investor Sentiment. SAGE Open, 15(3). https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440251365481

Diterbitkan

2026-07-28

Terbitan

Bagian

Articles