ANALISIS VALUASI SAHAM PT. BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN METODE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW (DCF) SEBAGAI DASAR PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24843/EJMUNUD.2026.v15.i4.p03Keywords:
capital asset pricing model; discounted cash flow; investment decision; intrinsic value; stock valuationAbstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis nilai intrinsik saham PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) dan merumuskan rekomendasi keputusan investasi, sebagai respons terhadap koreksi harga signifikan akibat tekanan capital outflow. Metode valuasi yang digunakan adalah Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) dengan pendekatan Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) untuk periode proyeksi tahun 2025 sampai dengan 2029. Hasil analisis menunjukkan nilai intrinsik saham BBRI lebih rendah dari harga pasarnya, mengindikasikan bahwa saham BBRI undervalued. Temuan undervalued ini mengimplikasikan bahwa investor dapat membeli saham pada harga yang lebih rendah dari nilai intrinsiknya, di mana nilai intrinsik tersebut telah memperhitungkan imbal hasil yang disyaratkan sebesar 9,72 persen sebagai kompensasi adil atas risiko sistematis berdasarkan kerangka Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini memberikan rekomendasi investasi BELI (BUY), karena potensi imbal hasil yang diharapkan (expected return) dari capital gain lebih tinggi daripada imbal hasil yang disyaratkan, sehingga menawarkan potensi keuntungan tambahan di atas kompensasi risiko yang seharusnya.
This study aims to analyze the intrinsic value of PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) stock and formulate an investment decision recommendation in response to a significant price correction due to capital outflow pressure. The valuation method used is the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) with a Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) approach for the year 2025 until 2029 projection period. The analysis results show that the intrinsic value of the stock is lower than the market price, indicating that BBRI stock is undervalued. This undervalued finding implies that investors can purchase the stock at a price lower than its intrinsic value, where this intrinsic value has already accounted for a required return of 9.72 percent as fair compensation for systematic risk based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) framework. Therefore, this study provides a BUY recommendation, as the expected return from capital gain is higher than the required return, thus offering the potential for additional profit beyond the necessary risk compensation.
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