DEVELOPING AN INTEGRATED CLIMATE DISASTER RISK FRAMEWORK FOR CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE RESILIENCE PLANNING

Abstract

Climate change and the increasing frequency of natural hazards pose growing challenges to the resilience of critical infrastructure. Yet, climate and disaster risks are commonly assessed in isolation, limiting their effectiveness for infrastructure planning. This fragmented approach limits civil engineering practice's ability to capture risk interactions, cascading effects, and spatial variability across interconnected infrastructure systems. This study aimed to develop an integrated risk analysis model that simultaneously incorporates climate change and disaster risks to support critical infrastructure resilience planning. A mixed-methods approach was applied using a case study in Masbagik and Pringgasela Districts, East Lombok Regency, Indonesia. The analysis combined risk matrix assessment, GIS-based exposure analysis, and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) using climate data, disaster records, spatial datasets, and inventories of five critical infrastructure sectors. The results showed integrated risk index values ranging from 0.67 to 0.83, with water supply, drainage, and road infrastructure consistently identified as the most critical systems. Scenario-based mitigation simulations indicated potential risk reductions of up to 40% at the district level, while integrated assessment reduced estimated annual losses by approximately 34% compared to separated analyses. The findings demonstrate that climate and disaster risks interact through reinforcing, cascading, and cumulative mechanisms that materially shape infrastructure vulnerability. This study contributes an Integrated Climate–Disaster Risk Framework that advances infrastructure resilience theory, strengthens integrated risk management, and provides a practical, spatially explicit decision-support tool for resilient and sustainable infrastructure planning