The Effect of Budget Variance on Changes in Regency/City Expenditure Budgets in South Sumatra

Errika; Yuliana Sari; Kurnia Widya Oktarini

Authors

Errika Accounting Department, Politeknik Negeri Sriwijaya, Indonesia
Yuliana Sari Accounting Department, Politeknik Negeri Sriwijaya, Indonesia
Kurnia Widya Oktarini Accounting Department, Politeknik Negeri Sriwijaya, Indonesia

Keywords:

Expenditure Budget Variance, Revenue Variance, Changes In Expenditure Budget, Regional Budget

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of variations in expenditure and revenue budgets on changes in expenditure budgets in district / city governments in South Sumatra. The sample was divided into 11 districts and 4 cities using purposive sampling technique. Data processing used a multiple regression statistical approach with multiple variables as well as classical assumption testing operated through the SPSS version 26 program. The research findings revealed that expenditure budget variation had a partially significant negative impact on budget changes, while revenue variation showed a significant positive influence. Simultaneously, however, both variables had a significant impact on budgetary changes. This study is expected to be a suggestion for local governments to form more appropriate budget policies, as well as an additional reference for further research in the field of local financial management.

References

Abdullah, S., & Nazry. (2015). Analisis Varian Anggaran Pemerintah Daerah Penjelasan Empiris dari Perspektif Keagenan. Jurnal Samudra Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 6(2), 272-283.

Abdullah, S., & Rona, R. (2014). Pengaruh Sisa Anggaran, Pendapatan Sendiri Dan Dana Perimbangan Terhadap Belanja Modal. Iqtishadia, 7(1), 179-202.

Ayuni, Q., Sari, Y., & Dwitayanti, Y. (2023). Analisa Pengaruh SILPA Dan Varians Anggaran Belanja Kabupaten dan Kota Provinsi Sumatera Selatan. JEMSI (Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Dan Akuntansi), 9(5), 1869–1877. https://doi.org/10.35870/jemsi.v9i5.1488

Badan Pemeriksa Keuangan Republik Indonesia. Laporan hasil pemeriksaan atas laporan keuangan pemerintah daerah 2014–2023. https://www.bpk.go.id/pemeriksaan/laporan-keuangan-pemerintah daerah-2014-2023

Berti Indah Sari, H. (2023). Pengaruh PendapatanAsli Daerah, DanaAlokasi Umum dan Belanja Daerah terhadap Kinerja Keuangan Pemerintah Daerah Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Barat. Jurnal Eksplorasi Akuntansi Vol. 3, No 1, 3(1), 56–60. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003322603-5

Chen, Y., & Zhang, J. (2018). Study on the fiscal budget deviation and its structural impact factors. Modern Economy, 9(9), 1559–1570. https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2018.99106

Eka, R. (2020). Pengaruh varian anggaran, ukuran pemerintah, dan kapasitas fiskal terhadap kinerja keuangan daerah. Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Akuntansi, 5(1), 45–60.

Fahrinda, Y., & Kuntadi, C. (2022). Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Perubahan Anggaran Pemerintah Daerah. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, 13(3).

Fatriani, R. R., Maria, M., & Amri, D. (2023). Pengaruh Politik, Perencanaan Anggaran, dan Fiscal Stress terhadap Perubahan Anggaran. Kompeten: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 2(2), 473-481.

Ghozali, I. (2021). Aplikasi Analisis Multivariate dengan Program IBM SPSS 26. Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Diponegoro Semarang.

Hanifa, R., & Ratnasari, D. (2021). The impact of budget variance on government spending performance: Evidence from local governments. Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, 33(4), 567–589. https://doi.org/10.1108/JPBAFM-05-2021-0067

Harun, M., Zakariah, M., & Azali, M. (2020). Impact of public expenditure on income distribution in Malaysia: A Social Accounting Matrix approach. Journal of Economic Development, 45(3), 65–84. https://doi.org/10.35866/caujed.2020.45.3.004

Herianti, E. (2019). Budget Turbulence and Budget Deviation: Do Local Government Have the Ability To Reduce Them? J. Tata Kelola dan Akuntabilitas Keuang. Negara, vol. 5, pp. 1–20.

Ingarianti, T. M. (2017). Faktor-faktor yang MemengaruhiPerilaku. Jurnal Bisnis Dan Ekonomi (JBE), 202–209.

Ismanto H, P. S. (2021). Analisis SPSS dan Eviews Dalam Analisis Data Penelitian. Yogyakarta: Penerbit Deepublish

JMKP. (2022). Pengaruh kinerja organisasi terhadap alokasi anggaran pada kondisi tekanan anggaran dan kecukupan anggaran. Jurnal Manajemen Keuangan Publik, 8(2), 121–137.

Junita, A. &. (2018). Pengaruh Fiscal Stress Dan Legislature Size Terhadap Expenditure Change Pada Kabupaten/Kota Di Sumatera Utara. Jurnal Akuntansi, 20(3), 467-478.

Junita, A., Erlina, Abubakar, E., & Abdullah, S. (2021). The effect of budget variances on the local government budget changes with legislature size as moderator. Academic Journal of Economic Studies, 7(2), 50–59.

Kara, B. (2024). The impact of budget revenue and expenditure forecasting errors on inflation in Turkey: An analysis of the 1975–2021 period. Istatistik ve Uygulamalı Bilimler Dergisi, 6(1), 22–34. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1417919

Khoo, S. V., Rahman, M. A., & Kamil, B. A. (2024). An evaluation of the influence of budgeting process on budget performance in Malaysia. Public Administration and Policy, 27(1), 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1108/PAP-03-2023-0035

Kurniawan, A., & Arza, F. I. (2019). Pengaruh Fiscal Stress, Varians Anggaran Dan Perubahan Sisa Lebih Perhitungan Anggaran Terhadap Perubahan Anggaran Belanja Pada Pemerintah Daerah (Studi Empiris Pada Pemerintah Daerah Kabupaten/Kota Di Provinsi Sumatera Barat). Jurnal Eksplorasi Akuntansi Vol. 1, No 3, Hal 1275-1292.

Mahmudi. (2019). Analisis laporan keuangan pemerintah daerah. Yogyakarta : UPP STIM YKPN, 123-146.

Maryadi. (2014). Pengaruh Pendapatan Asli Daerah, Dana Alokasi Umum, Dana Bagi Hasil, Sisa Lebih Pembiayaan Anggaran dan Luas Wilayah Terhadap Belanja Modal Pada Kabupaten dan Kota di Indonesia Tahun 2012. Jurnal Universitas Maritim Raja Ali Haji Tanjungpinang, 1-26

Mardiasmo. (2018). Akuntansi Sektor Publik - Edisi Terbaru. Penerbit Andi.

Nasir, M., Ahmad, S., & Khalid, M. (2017). The relationship between federal government revenue and spending: The ASEAN-5 experience. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 9(2), 133–142.

Novelsyah, M., Wahyudin Nor, & Rasidah. (2022). Model Prediksi Perubahan Anggaran Belanja Daerah Pada Kabupaten Kota di Kalimantan Selatan. Jurnal Akuntansi Keuangan Dan Bisnis, 15(1), 401–410. https://doi.org/10.35143/jakb.v15i1.5296

Nuraini, S., & Yuliani, T. (2020). Revenue budget variance and capital expenditure spending. Jurnal Akuntansi Multiparadigma, 11(1), 1–17.

Nur Rafli, M., & Fitria Sari, V. (2021). Pengaruh PAD, SiIPA, dan Fiscal Stress terhadap Perubahan Belanja Bantuan Sosial pada Pemerintah Daerah. Jurnal Eksplorasi Akuntansi, 3(3), 486–500.

OECD. (2025). Government budgeting and expenditure: A multifaceted analysis of fiscal variability and institutional innovations. Scientific Research Publishing.

Politeknik Negeri Banjarmasin. (2018). Evaluating budget functions for effective revenue and expenditure planning. International Journal of Research in Vocational Studies, 1(2), 45–56. https://journal.gpp.or.id/index.php/ijrvocas/article/view/241

Purba, R. (2023). Teori Akutansi: Sebuah Pemahaman untuk Mendukung Penelitian di Bidang Akuntansi Cetakan. In Penerbit Merdeka Kreasi.

Putri, A., Abdullah, S., & Batara, G. (2024). Determinan Perubahan Anggaran Belanja Modal Pemerintah Daerah Kota di Indonesia. Jurnal Terapan Pemerintahan Minangkabau Vol. 4, No. 2, 4(2), 186–199.

Ramadhan, F. . A. S. . K.-K. S. & P. R. (2021). Determinan Perubahan Anggaran Belanja Daerah. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 12(2).

Ramdany, A. C. (2022). Analysis of budget performance: Spending variance, budget revision and budget blocking. Ekuitas: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan, 26(2), 197–216. https://doi.org/10.24034/j25485024.y2022.v26.i2.5266

Ratifah, I., & Nuraeni, P. (2021). Influence of Fiscal Stress and Legislature Size on Expenditure Change. Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Kontemporer, 13(2), 59–64. https://doi.org/10.23969/jrak.v13i2.4248

Rizqiyati, C. P. (2019). Determinan perubahan anggaran belanja modal. Jurnal Riset Akuntansi dan Keuangan, 7(1), 83-96.

Sari, A. F. V. F. (2022). Pengaruh Otonomi Keuangan, Akumulasi Surplus dan Sisa Lebih Perhitungan Anggaran (SiLPA) Terhadap Perubahan Belanja Modal. Jurnal Eksplorasi Akuntansi, 5(3), 936–951. https://doi.org/10.24036/jea.v5i3.734

Silalahi, T. L. (2020). Analisa kinerja anggaran belanja pada Kementerian Perdagangan Republik Indonesia. Jurnal Nasional.

Siregar, H., & Susanti, R. (2019). Determinants of budget forecast errors and their impacts on budget effectiveness: Evidence from Indonesia. Cogent Economics & Finance, 7(1), 1588531. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2019.1588531

Slyter, M. F. (2016). How well do hospitals budget operating results? The relationship between budget variances and operating margin (Doctoral dissertation, University of Alabama at Birmingham). https://doi.org/10.1234/uas.2016.00123

Sugiyono. (2023). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R&D. Bandung: Alfabeta, CV.

Syaliha, & Rachmelia. (2021). Pengaruh Fiscal Stress, Rebudgeting In Time Over Budget Calculation (P-SiLPA) dan Legislature Size Terhadap Expenditure Change pada kabupaten dan kota di Jawa Barat Tahun 2015-2019. (Doctoral dissertation, Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Universitas Pakuan).

Tevdovski, D., & Stojanovic, M. (2021). Determinants of budget deficits: Effects from the COVID-19 crisis. arXiv preprint arXiv:2105.14959. https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.14959

Wardayani, K., Dewata, E., & Jauhari, H. (2022). Factors affecting budget absorption of expenditure local apparatus organization Prabumulih City Government during the COVID-19 period. International Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting Research, 6(3), 1966–1978. https://doi.org/10.29040/ijebar.v6i3.6205

Zhang, Y., & Tang, C. (2024). Impact of budget performance management reform on local fiscal relief in China. Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, 36(1), 55–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pubrev.2024.102472